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Location: Equipment Upgrade
Discussion: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
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Drogen Drogen |
How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Mar 9 2008, 10:44 AM EDT It is really simple you just need math and a good overall chance;) or rather probability calculus! example: An upgrade from +4 to +5 has a 5 sucess chance of 50%. So how big is the Failure Rate after 2 failed upgrades in a row? 50%x50%x50% = 12,5% the success rate to create a +5 upgrade after 2 failed ones in row is: 87,5% ;) Why? When you flip a coin 3 times. there is only a 12,5 % chance that you will get all that 3 times the head. So how can i use this for my upgrades without wasting expensive items?? Just waste cheap ones ;)!! Example: 1.Get 10 broadsword and the item you really want to upgrade from +4 to +5. So know you upgrade all that broadwsword at +4 (this will cost you in total 870 vis). 2.Now you got 10x +4 Broadswords and the +4 item that you really want to upgrade. 3.Now you start to try to create +5 broadsword. And everytime when you fail 2 times in a row there is circa a 87,5% chance that the next update will be success. 4. So? After 2 failed Broadswords you try to upgrade the expensive item to +5 with a chance of 87,5% BE WARNED! This chance can be change to your disadvantage when you create sucessfully for example 4x +5 Broadsword in a row and after that you get the 2 failures. So it is necessary to watch how the sucessrate was before the 2 failures. greetz Drogen ps: you can get better overall chance when you try to make more then 2 failures in a row with your broadsword. When you got 3 failures in a row the sucess chance will be 93,75%. but its hard to get 3 failures in a row without getting a large number of sucess in row direct before the failures. A little advice: Buy 20 level 1 Broadsword and 10 level 4 Broadswords. Then try to create so many +5 level 4 Broadsword how you can with the technique from above. I've you dont have bad luck and you do everything correct you must get 7-8 +5 level 4 Broadswords. 19 out of 52 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Drogen Drogen |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Mar 9 2008, 10:55 AM EDT i forgot an other good advice for guys who want to upgrade more then one expensive items with this technique: When you loose an expensive item after you tried to upgrade it after 2 failures in row you simple got 3 failures in row! So DONT put a level 1 broadsword in for the next upgrade!!!!!!!!!!!!! it will be a waste for this good chance. Just put the next expensive item in that you want to upgrade. If this will fail (ugh... really bad luck) put the next expensive in the sucess rate will be know nearly 100% You should consider this too when you want to test this technique with the 20x Level 1 Broadsword and the 10x Level 2 Broadswords. 6 out of 17 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Drogen Drogen |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Mar 9 2008, 9:12 PM EDT this technique works for upgrades from +5 to +6 but it is a bit more expensive and you need a lot of time! Why? Simple The sucessrate to create a item from +5 to +6 is 25%. to get a good sucess rate (ca 82%) you need to get 5 failures in a row. The failure rate is higher but its hard to get so much +5 sword not really expensive but hard ;) (SO!!! Dont sell the +5 broadsword which you got from the +4 to +5 technique when you want to make an upgrade from 5 to 6) so you need circa over 20x +5 broadswords. a little advice i would prefer a 7 failures in a row before i would put in the expensive item (ca. 87% chance of sucess). greetz Drogen ps: To get a good sucess chance with this technique after +6 is possible but a really waste of time. you would need over 13 failures in a row to get a 82% chance ... so you will need ca. 70x or more +6 Broadswords to get such a high failures in a row. i jsut tried for a little test. After an 20 minutes and ca 100 broadswords i got 14x +6 broadswords ;). 3 out of 11 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Drogen Drogen |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Mar 9 2008, 9:35 PM EDT hehe i think this artice will really push up the prices for +5,+6 and +7 broadswords :D and the prices for accelerators will be decrease at the same time :) a fair priceses would be: +5 = 250 +6 = 1100 +7= 11000 6 out of 16 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 13 2008, 2:36 PM EDT This is the gambler's falacy. It is patently untrue. You will have the same chance of failure each time. There is no reduction to the chance of failure regardless of the amount of times you fail previously. 28 out of 28 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 13 2008, 3:33 PM EDT Last poster has it right. You could fail 99 times in a row, that doesn't give you any better chances than 50% on your next try. 18 out of 18 found this valuable. Do you? |
 Lothmak |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 13 2008, 6:10 PM EDT yup. is pure luck (or pure accelerators *.*) 4 out of 11 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 14 2008, 2:23 AM EDT Poster doesn't know the basics of probability, much less "probability calculus" (which doesn't exist) I'm guessing for the upgrader the events are mutually exclusive, that is...if you flip a coin, that flip will not effect the next flip. If you flip 1 million coins and they happen to all turn up heads, the chances that the next coin turns up tails is still 50%. Sorry to crush everyone's hopes of getting a full set of cheap +5's 17 out of 20 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 14 2008, 3:34 AM EDT It doesn't sound like you know much about it either. Even though probabilities are not mutually dependent, probabilistic models project that the likelihood of what you mentioned occuring is extremely unprobabilistic. It is impossible unless the fundamental assumptions of probability were proven wrong. 1 out of 13 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Lothmak |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 14 2008, 10:39 AM EDT lol way to use the language; Well, the thing with that method, is that it was probably a bug, to alter the chance of success. There was a post on the forums and was deleted because it explained it, but this does not work and if it does, you can be certain that you'll be punished for exploiting it. The chance thing in the game works with 100 numbers (to give you an idea, the numbers vary from weapon and level), 50 are positive numbers and 50 are negative. The computer selects 1 of those 100 numbers randomly to determine a successful upgrade. Every upgrade has 1 out of 50 chances to succeed and 1 out of 50 to fail (talking about +4 to +5, after +5 the chances change) The bug was altering the selection, making the computer select one of the positive numbers before actually doing the upgrade, giving you a secure upgrade. The bug pretty much worked like the upgrade accelerators, an accelerator changes negative numbers to positive, thus increasing your chance of success. Lets compare this to the above coin flip shall we? ^^ a coin has 2 faces (2 chances - 1 you win or 1 you lose) but the game for the upgrade has 100 (50 you win - 50 you lose). If you could add another face to a coin, you'll have 2 chances of wining and 1 of losing < and that's what was happening. The bug did indeed exist, but it doesn't now =P The only way you can alter the success chance (or those 50 positive numbers) is with accelerators (they change negative numbers to positive). Instead of 50 positive chances, you can get up to 99 with accels. They basically add positive numbers by %: (example, lets say > an elite 84 has 33 positive numbers of success) 33 + 200%(20 accelerators) = 99 < the normal rate of an elite 84 weapon with accelerators. Note: This can be wrong, but for now its accurate 12 out of 12 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 14 2008, 6:52 PM EDT Probability is dificult to understand... but hear me out. 6 coins are being flipped. Assuming we are dealing with a "fair coin," that is a coin in which there is an equal probability that it will land on head or tail. Thus, in the fair coin, the probability that the coin lands on heads is 1/2 because on the average, one out of every two times the coin lands on heads. Likewise the probability that the coin will land on tails is also 1/2. Let's set up a tree diagram: 50% / \ 50% head tails 50% / \50% 50%/ \50% head tails head tails To find the odds, just multiply across the path that leads to two heads: so you keep going with this... .50 * .50 = .25 or 25 percent. .50*.50*.50 = .125 or 12.5 percent if you have a 12.5 percent chance of getting heads (failure) that leaves you with 87.5 percent chance of success. This link will give you the details and the formula. http://science.kennesaw.edu/~jdemaio/1107/binomial_probability_distributio.htm In your case, n- number of trials is 3 x- number of successes is 3 p- probability of success is 0.5 as you say it is a fair trial. P(x=3) = (3 / 3) * .5 to the (3rd power) 8 (1-.5) to the (0) = ? With these the binomial formula yields an answer .125 So your probability is 12.5%. http://www.onlinemathlearning.com/probability-tree-diagrams.html http://www.math.lsu.edu/~madden/M1100/note2.html http://science.kennesaw.edu/~jdemaio/1107/binomial_probability_distributio.htm and lastly http://www.teachertube.com/view_video.php?viewkey=49e67306feb59a8bdc52 2 out of 11 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 14 2008, 6:53 PM EDT ^ above annon is me Akiokrest 1 out of 7 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Lothmak |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 15 2008, 2:29 PM EDT heh, that is good math practice But, the thing with a coin won't work with the chances because it only has 50% on each (2 sides only). Try a cube with no top or bottom sides... 4 sides 25% on each you'll still have less chance of succes if the successfull side was only 1, but if we say 3 are positive and 1 is negative you'll have 75% of success not 50% on every try. I do like the coin formula =P but the game dosen't really use the same method. The game can't be defined in the same way that a coin toss, cause the game uses 100 "sides" and the 50 chaces of success can be changed. (that's why I said in the example "if you could add another face to a coin"; if you could you'll no longer have 50% chance, but instead you'll have an extra). Remmember that you're talking about 2 coin tosses, so the chances will be the same every time. But what if you were talking about 1 coin toss, with altered percent of wining? instead of 50% 50% you'll have 75% vs 25%. Try doing the same ecuation with 1 die, select one number of the die and then throw it. You'll have less than 25% of success. Then choose 4 numbers, and toss the die again; you'll have al altered % of success. < that is what happens with the game (not with the bug lol, I'm talking about the game itself, when I mean altered chance, I'm talking about the Accelerators in a weapon.) I do like the coin explanation =P I'll try to combine it with the programing logic.. we might be able to find the correct formula for the upgrades if we combine it with the "100" chance idea. 2 out of 6 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Akiokrest Akiokrest |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 15 2008, 10:01 PM EDT The only reason why I stick to my formula is, it works for me I've gotten to 7+ with a 85% success rate 3 out of 7 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Apr 27 2008, 11:03 PM EDT "It doesn't sound like you know much about it either. Even though probabilities are not mutually dependent, probabilistic models project that the likelihood of what you mentioned occuring is extremely unprobabilistic. It is impossible unless the fundamental assumptions of probability were proven wrong."I was proving a point, obviously the chances of getting 1 million coin flips in a row is pretty much impossible. .5^(1 million). I was just trying dumb down what mutually exclusive means. 3 out of 7 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
May 28 2008, 4:04 PM EDT P(A|B) = P(A^B)/P(B). traduction: probability of A happening knowing that B has happened, is equal to the probability of the intersection between A and B, divided by the probability of B. That is the probability of happening an A event (success rate for a weapon as an example), given that you know an event B (how many failures you had before this given item, for example) happened before. Now, if A and B are independent, or beeing, if A doesnt influences B, then P(A^B) equals P(A)*P(B), so P(B|A) = P(B). Since most softwares use built in functions to get random numbers when tryiing to verify percents, (like the random() function o math.c library), those events are in fact independet, so it wouldn't matter how many failures you have got, it won't change your base percent chance. But i don't know if those variables are truly independent, since i cant view the game source code... But my guess is they are... try looking for 'conditional probability' on wikipedia, where you can see this theory i used full explained. 3 out of 3 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Jun 6 2008, 4:27 PM EDT I understand where people are comming from with the fact that a +5 upgrade is always going to be a 50% chance no matter what, but due to statistics the whole increase of chance from failures is technically true due to expectancy. So after 3 flips of the coin landing on heads the last flip should land on tails. In real life, however, this isn't true - it's always a 50% probability because every time you pick up the coin its a completely new toss based on knetic energy, gravity, air resistance, etc. But the game uses an engine based on statistics - not real life probability. 4 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Lothmak |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Jun 7 2008, 11:18 AM EDT "I understand where people are comming from with the fact that a +5 upgrade is always going to be a 50% chance no matter what, but due to statistics the whole increase of chance from failures is technically true due to expectancy. So after 3 flips of the coin landing on heads the last flip should land on tails. In real life, however, this isn't true - it's always a 50% probability because every time you pick up the coin its a completely new toss based on knetic energy, gravity, air resistance, etc. But the game uses an engine based on statistics - not real life probability."Exactly lol, every rpg uses the same D&D formulas, is always a Die throw. Since is just a link process made by the computer after functions and loops of programing we can't compare it with a coin toss. good explanation Anonymous lol 4 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Jul 17 2008, 9:51 AM EDT One problem is that the maths is wrong. The probability that you will successfully upgrade after 2 failed attempts is 1 x 1 x 0.5= 0.5 = 50% Because you KNOW the first 2 were failures. so they have a 100% chance of being so, and not 50% Do you find this valuable? |
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Anonymous |
RE: How to get better chances of Success without Accelerators?!
Jul 27 2008, 10:15 PM EDT What the enchantment chip does? and where can i get Accelerators? 0 out of 2 found this valuable. Do you? |