It is really simple you just need math and a good overall chance;) or rather probability calculus!

example:
An upgrade from +4 to +5 has a 5 sucess chance of 50%.

So how big is the Failure Rate after 2 failed upgrades in a row?
50%x50%x50% = 12,5%

the success rate to create a +5 upgrade after 2 failed ones in row is:
87,5% ;)

Why? When you flip a coin 3 times. there is only a 12,5 % chance that you will get all that 3 times the head.

So how can i use this for my upgrades without wasting expensive items??

Just waste cheap ones ;)!!

Example:

1.Get 10 broadsword and the item you really want to upgrade from +4 to +5. So know you upgrade all that broadwsword at +4 (this will cost you in total 870 vis).

2.Now you got 10x +4 Broadswords and the +4 item that you really want to upgrade.

3.Now you start to try to create +5 broadsword. And everytime when you fail 2 times in a row there is circa a 87,5% chance that the next update will be success.

4. So? After 2 failed Broadswords you try to upgrade the expensive item to +5 with a chance of 87,5%

BE WARNED! This chance can be change to your disadvantage when you create sucessfully for example 4x +5 Broadsword in a row and after that you get the 2 failures. So it is necessary to watch how the sucessrate was before the 2 failures.


greetz Drogen

ps: you can get better overall chance when you try to make more then 2 failures in a row with your broadsword. When you got 3 failures in a row the sucess chance will be 93,75%. but its hard to get 3 failures in a row without getting a large number of sucess in row direct before the failures.

A little advice: Buy 20 level 1 Broadsword and 10 level 4 Broadswords. Then try to create so many +5 level 4 Broadsword how you can with the technique from above. I've you dont have bad luck and you do everything correct you must get 7-8 +5 level 4 Broadswords.

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I tried making +5 once and out of 20 swords... only 1 was successful... also, armors, i was tried about 10 times and 1 was successful... is it only that i am so unlucky? -_-;;;

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http://img296.imageshack.us/my.php?image=capture00031sj7.png

this is a +9

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do it glow on on bracers for ele too?

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